By Matthew Langston
UNC FactCheck wrote a story earlier this month that explored spending in the two special elections that happened last month in North Carolina’s 3rd and 9th Congressional districts, determining that, at the time, Republicans had outspent Democrats overall.
Now that final spending numbers are in, it’s time to revisit that conclusion.
The 3rd District election was between Republican Greg Murphy and Democrat Allen Thomas, and Murphy won that race by 24 percentage points. The 9th District election, which received far more political and media attention, was between Republican Dan Bishop and Democrat Dan McCready, and Bishop won that race by two percentage points.
UNC FactCheck’s previous story focused on the claim that Democrats heavily outspent Republicans in the two special elections. When considering both spending by the candidates’ campaigns and spending by outside groups, it appeared that Republicans had outspent Democrats in the special elections.
The story did note that this conclusion could change because campaign finance reports at the time only covered spending up to Aug. 21 and did not include spending made in the last three weeks that preceded Election Day, which was Sept. 10.
The numbers for those last three weeks were not available until final campaign spending reportswere released on Oct. 10.
While those reports, which cover campaign spending up to Sept. 30, do not show substantial campaign spending in the final weeks of the 3rd District election, they do show McCready outspending Bishop by a three-to-one margin in the final weeks of the 9th District election.
That margin would be more than enough to change the previous story’s conclusion, and it suggests that Democrats did outspend Republicans in North Carolina’s special elections after all.
To come to a definite conclusion on which party spent more in the special elections, it is important to take a closer look at the spending numbers found in the reports.
The Numbers
In the less competitive 3rd District race, Thomas’ final operating expenditure, was just over $605,000, while Murphy’s final operating expenditure was just under $998,000.
In the 9th District race, operating expenditures for Bishop and McCready reached well into the millions. Bishop’s final operating expenditure was just under $2.7 million, while McCready’s final operating expenditure was about $7.3 million.
The table below shows the four campaigns’ operating expenditures up to Aug. 21 and up to Sept. 30. The campaign spending up to Sept. 30 represents the final spending numbers for the two special elections.
Outside spending was not a factor in the 3rd District election, as no Democratic groups spent money to support Thomas or oppose Murphy. Just as was done in the previous story, UNC FactCheck excluded outside spending in that race and focused on outside spending in the 9th District.
The final numbers for outside spending in the 9th District come from the Center for Responsive Politics, which tracks spending in congressional elections. While both liberal and conservative outside groups spent money in the 9th District special election, the majority of outside spending was from conservative groups.
As noted in the previous story, outside spending from conservative groups was key to helping Bishop stay competitive against McCready, who was a prolific fundraiser. At the time, it appeared that spending by conservative groups allowed Republicans to outspend Democrats in North Carolina’s special elections.
With the final campaign spending numbers now available, it turns out that was not the case.
Using the same method that UNC FactCheck came up with for the previous story, spending by the candidates was combined with spending by outside groups to find total spending by the two political parties.
For McCready, that meant taking his spending numbers and combining it with pro-McCready and anti-Bishop outside spending numbers. For Bishop, that meant taking his spending numbers and combining it with pro-Bishop and anti-McCready outside spending numbers.
As the numbers show, the $3 million that McCready spent in the last three weeks of the election resulted in Democrats outspending Republicans in North Carolina’s special elections. Still, McCready’s spending surge ultimately was just not enough to help him win in the 9th District, which was last represented by a Democrat in 1963.
Spending by Bishop, McCready and outside groups also resulted in total spending for the 9th District race exceeding $20 million, which makes it the second-most expensive special election for a House seat.
In addition to hitting that mark, the race left Bishop and McCready with far less money than when they started. Bishop was left with just over $200,000 in cash on hand, while McCready was left with a little under $130,000 in cash on hand.
